Date: November 11, 2008
Time: 9:00 AM - 12:00 NN
Venue: SGV Hall, 3/F AIM Conference Center Manila, Makati City
Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050
Last November 11, 2008, the AIM Policy Center and Shell Petroleum Corp. hosted a lecture by Dr. Cho Khong, Chief Political Analyst of Shell International. For Shell, the event is a great opportunity to bring to the Philippines Dr. Khong and his expansive knowledge of energy scenarios. For the AIM Policy Center, this event is a welcome addition to the Energy Policy Series, which has in the past installments tackled energy and environmental security issues, but none specifically on long-term scenarios.
His talk centered on the future of energy, particularly the two scenarios developed Shell. The Scenarios show two possible routes: one, Scramble, driven by fears over energy security and short term reactions resulting a lot of turbulence and volatility in the energy system and severe climate change. The other, Blueprints, see anticipation of challenges and critical choices are made early to respond to challenges, this results in a more stable energy system and much better environmental outcomes. It is important to note that neither scenario is a business-as-usual scenario and that both scenarios see reduced global energy consumption.
Some of the most powerful statements from the talk were as follows:
- The energy system does not change overnight, thus any modelling on the global energy scenario will have to be long-term.
- The energy systems of today set the context for the future.
- Coming up with these scenarios takes looking at many variables which metaphorically is like monitoring several dials in an aircraft. The point is: where do we hope to land?
- There are three hard truths that we have to accept: energy demand will continue to surge, supply will struggle to keep pace, and environmental stresses cause by the energy sector are increasing.
- Technology plays a large role in both scenarios but there are no silver bullets.
- Urgent action is needed since the choices made in the next five years will be critical in determining the route we will take over the next half-century.
You may access the interactive Shell Scenarios to 2050 publication at http://www.shell.com/scenarios
About the Speaker
Dr. Cho-Oon Khong is the Chief Political Analyst in the Global Business Environment team of Shell International with 15 years of experience in leading and participating in country scenario projects. Dr. Khong advises on political trends, is responsible for political risk analysis for the Shell Group, and leads the external environment assessments for the Group’s country reviews. He was actively involved in developing the 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2005 sets of Shell Global Scenarios and the 2008 Shell Energy Scenarios.
Dr. Khong tracks politics and international relations and is particularly interested in issues of political development in Asia and the Middle East. He has worked with a range of international organisations, governments, universities, research institutions and business companies in Asia, Europe, the US and Africa. He is a member of the advisory panel of the Evian Group and served on the Advisory Boards of the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation and of the Faculty of Social Studies at Warwick University.
Dr. Khong previously taught Politics and International Relations at the University of Bath and the National University of Singapore, researching political development in East Asia. He was also Senior Economist at the Commonwealth Secretariat in London and Laski Scholar at St John’s College, Cambridge. He graduated from the University of Singapore, and received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the London School of Economics.